Gummy-Pagoda
0xe402d0dfa5d8c4c960fe802f01673239117976c9
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$94.89
Total PnL
$-466.67
Realised
$18.44
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?
20 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.00
$6.60
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$12.50
$-4.50
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?
10 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.00
$2.50
- NO
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 92.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$9.70
$0.77
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.62
$1.42
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
10 shares @ 80.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.56
$1.56
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
9 shares @ 64.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.14
$2.38
- YES
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 47.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.45
$-7.65
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
50 shares @ 37.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.50
$-13.00
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
102 shares @ 9.8¢·now 3.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.42
$-6.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$5.23May 8, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$5.23May 8, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?$9.66May 4, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?$1.50May 2, 07:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?$22.71May 2, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?$3.54Apr 30, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?$3.95Apr 29, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?$7.40Apr 24, 07:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?$22.45Apr 23, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?$6.15Apr 23, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$24.82Apr 23, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$8.93Apr 15, 13:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$9.00Apr 15, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?$20.58Apr 1, 11:05 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Mexico by March 31?$19.98Apr 1, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$9.00Mar 30, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?$12.02Mar 30, 09:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?$21.61Mar 30, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?$5.47Feb 26, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?$5.23Feb 26, 21:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $9.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 19, 15:20 UTC
- Last active
- May 8, 12:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.