Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
Probability
53¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+24.5pp
24h Vol
$18.3K
Liquidity
$12.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+25.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6000.4h
- 23:33SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6000h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 23:33PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 53¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 53¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 56¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 57¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 57¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.5pp
to 59¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 51¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this marketOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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