Attached-Donor
0xe423f6ee6cd16e715fcca7d8ed0ffdf79ed02492
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$103.17
Total PnL
$-560.15
Realised
$62.26
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?
60 shares @ 75.0¢·now 56.1¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$33.66
$-11.32
- YES
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 29.8¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.50
$-0.30
- YES
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
50 shares @ 69.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.75
$-6.75
- NO
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
60 shares @ 35.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$6.30
$-14.70
- YES
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?
5 shares @ 23.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.10
$1.95
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
4 shares @ 78.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.86
$-0.09
- YES
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
400 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-12.60
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
300 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-33.50
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
300 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-13.80
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?
250 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-29.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$36.96Jul 23, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$6.35Jul 21, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$7.10Jul 21, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$6.39Jul 21, 03:04 UTC
- REWARD$1.20Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$48.43Jul 14, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$50.57Jul 14, 07:36 UTC
- REWARD$4.99Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.16Jul 13, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$20.17Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$34.00Jul 12, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$5.80Jul 12, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$5.80Jul 12, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$6.00Jul 12, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$6.00Jul 12, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$6.20Jul 12, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$13.20Jul 12, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$13.20Jul 12, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$13.40Jul 12, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$13.40Jul 12, 14:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $16.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 09:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 06:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.