Shy-Note
0xe43235629c5f4581d039cec28014dc74631b934a
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
177
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-3.3K
Realised
$-0.59
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 177- YES
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
180 shares @ 40.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$69.30
$-2.70
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
336 shares @ 30.7¢·now 12.9¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$43.29
$-59.75
- YES
Philadelphia Union to score first vs. New York Red Bulls?
67 shares @ 55.7¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$40.53
$3.18
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
180 shares @ 25.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$40.50
$-4.50
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
180 shares @ 16.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$36.00
$7.20
- YES
Kalmar FF vs. Mjallby AIF: Draw at halftime?
85 shares @ 41.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$34.85
$0.00
- YES
Will CD Garcilaso win on 2026-07-26?
58 shares @ 60.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$34.22
$-0.58
- YES
Columbus Crew to score first vs. New York City FC?
50 shares @ 52.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$27.75
$1.75
- YES
Kalmar FF leading at halftime?
85 shares @ 32.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$27.20
$0.00
- YES
New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: Draw at halftime?
65 shares @ 39.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$26.00
$0.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-07-22?$1.55Jul 22, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Akron Tolyatti vs. FK Zenit end in a draw?$5.43Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Zenit win on 2026-07-25?$21.46Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Akron Tolyatti win on 2026-07-25?$2.43Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$4.53Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$3.56Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$11.06Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CD Garcilaso vs. FC Cajamarca end in a draw?$1.99Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Cajamarca win on 2026-07-26?$1.25Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CD Garcilaso win on 2026-07-26?$4.90Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Cajamarca win on 2026-07-26?$7.82Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CD Garcilaso win on 2026-07-26?$30.60Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CD Garcilaso vs. FC Cajamarca end in a draw?$12.46Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYShanghai Haigang FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Draw at halftime?$7.80Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYShanghai Shenhua FC leading at halftime?$6.31Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYShanghai Haigang FC leading at halftime?$7.38Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYShanghai Haigang FC leading at halftime?$17.56Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYShanghai Haigang FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Draw at halftime?$18.58Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYShanghai Shenhua FC leading at halftime?$15.01Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYKalmar FF vs. Mjallby AIF: Draw at halftime?$2.11Jul 22, 08:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $10.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 06:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 08:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.