Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
Probability
22¢
1h
-1.7pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$2.43
Liquidity
$4.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 10:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 29¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 28¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 30¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 28¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.2pp
to 30¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 28¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 29¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.9pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.6pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.4pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 23, 2025
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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Top Holders
20 wallets- 0xa5ef…29663.2K
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