Rural-Sight
0xe450d771caa532822ccd55d5b8ce09e188fe91b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-921.40
Realised
$53.88
Win rate
56%
72 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
345 shares @ 49.5¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$283.05
$112.08
- YES
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
574 shares @ 9.6¢·now 18.4¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$105.87
$50.63
- NO
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
115 shares @ 71.5¢·now 76.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$87.64
$5.24
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
70 shares @ 54.4¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$67.83
$29.78
- YES
Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?
54 shares @ 57.4¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$52.66
$21.68
- YES
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
234 shares @ 13.5¢·now 20.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$48.13
$16.39
- YES
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
466 shares @ 11.5¢·now 10.1¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$46.83
$-6.87
- YES
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
442 shares @ 29.5¢·now 9.2¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$40.47
$-89.86
- NO
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 64.2¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$39.00
$0.50
- NO
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?
37 shares @ 72.1¢·now 90.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$32.96
$6.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?$3.00Jul 28, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$2.11Jul 28, 15:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$2.18Jul 28, 15:43 UTC
- MERGEWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$0.50Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$24.90Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$0.10Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$3.00Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$3.60Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- MERGEWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$33.75Jul 28, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$6.75Jul 28, 14:38 UTC
- MERGEWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$15.75Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$3.15Jul 28, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$11.40Jul 28, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$36.00Jul 28, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$5.58Jul 28, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$35.00Jul 28, 13:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$1.60Jul 28, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$0.42Jul 28, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$15.62Jul 28, 13:28 UTC
- CONVERSIONHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 13:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 72 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
72 closed markets, 56% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $7.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 72 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.