Insidious-Satire
0xe455e1479d1cadf4ece9d015ad7031b5e3fb27c8
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$4.22
Total PnL
$-3.39
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.06
$0.00
- NO
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Stanford win the 2025 ACC Conference Championship Game?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-0.67
- YES
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.57
- YES
Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.56
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 2 be less than 1,750,000?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.54
- NO
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the January meeting?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.52
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?$7.28Jun 27, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?$8.37Jun 27, 10:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?$8.53Jun 27, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?$9.60Jun 27, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June?$1.00Jun 27, 10:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28?$8.41Jun 27, 10:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings?$1.02Jun 27, 10:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill CZ post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1.07Jun 27, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28?$9.50Jun 27, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings?$1.00Jun 4, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$10.41Jun 4, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$11.50Jun 4, 17:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 13?$1.07Apr 18, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?$1.08Apr 18, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?$1.08Apr 18, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?$1.09Apr 18, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 14?$1.10Apr 18, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5)$1.10Apr 18, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?$1.15Apr 18, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner?$4.10Apr 18, 09:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $6.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 21, 08:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 10:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.