Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$15.73
Liquidity
$2.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1592h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 10.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1592.4h
- 14:33SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1592h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 7¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 7¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 7¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a "MacBook" product with cellular connectivity by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "MacBook". A product that would accomplish a similar function will not qualify, the name must actually be "MacBook". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).