Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse
0xe457dd299f14f8f097b0d7ec8d5be29761455ab3
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$768.89
Total PnL
$-395.74
Realised
$-22.60
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
100 shares @ 70.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$65.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 81.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Sep 18, 2026$58.00
$-23.00
- YES
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
100 shares @ 73.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$51.50
$-21.50
- YES
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
70 shares @ 85.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$47.25
$-12.25
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
90 shares @ 75.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.75
$-24.75
- NO
Will Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp May 30, 2027$39.00
$-5.50
- YES
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
64 shares @ 62.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$35.52
$-4.16
- NO
Will the Seahawks win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
100 shares @ 46.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$35.50
$-10.50
- NO
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
50 shares @ 80.9¢·now 57.9¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$28.93
$-11.53
- YES
Will there be no next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?
50 shares @ 64.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?$9.12Jul 24, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?$10.00Jul 24, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?$0.47Jul 24, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?$0.49Jul 24, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$1.36Jul 24, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$1.38Jul 24, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?$19.52Jul 24, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?$20.50Jul 24, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?$7.33Jul 24, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?$7.63Jul 24, 02:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?$4.98Jul 24, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?$5.20Jul 24, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$41.00Jul 24, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$44.00Jul 24, 01:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat?$42.24Jul 24, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat?$43.00Jul 24, 01:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?$57.37Jul 24, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?$59.40Jul 24, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$7.00Jul 24, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$7.44Jul 24, 01:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $22.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 00:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 02:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.