Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

1. 1

   Down 7pp over 24h

   Now 54¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $23.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.