0xe464040e0043a973b01f1cb49fe0d182e93e847d
0xe464040e0043a973b01f1cb49fe0d182e93e847d
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$41.51
Total PnL
$6.61
Realised
$-3.21
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
30 shares @ 6.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$30.33
$28.51
- YES
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
953 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.24
$-2.38
- NO
Will Aksel V. Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands following the 2026 Faroese general election?
4 shares @ 94.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$4.01
$0.21
- NO
Will Affe get engaged on Love is Blind: Sweden: Season 3?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$1.92
$0.02
- YES
Will Aubry Bracco be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?
143 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.94
- YES
Will Aksel V. Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands following the 2026 Faroese general election?
57 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.80
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 21 be less than 2,400,000?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Affe get engaged on Love is Blind: Sweden: Season 3?
4 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.80
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $1.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 02:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 16, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.