Watchful-Pagan
0xe56967f1df09d318106a1f87ad56ddc5c51d0ff5
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$49.97
Total PnL
$-29.91
Realised
$1.38
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
50 shares @ 30.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$49.97
$34.50
- YES
Apple announces iPhone assembly in the U.S. before September?
780 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
236 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-17.50
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August?
117 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?
18 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?
16 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?
10 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
OpenAI acquired in 2025?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$15.90May 25, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?$1.30Jan 15, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$1.30Aug 21, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$17.50Aug 1, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?$1.00Aug 1, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$1.00Aug 1, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$1.00Aug 1, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship?$19.92Jul 27, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a foldable iPhone in 2025?$0.58Jul 18, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship?$1.71Jul 18, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump x Epstein files made public in 2025?$1.71Jul 18, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship?$4.61Jul 17, 18:22 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$4.38Jul 17, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYApple announces iPhone assembly in the U.S. before September?$30.00Jul 16, 23:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?$0.00Jul 14, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran before August?$1.00Jul 8, 21:04 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire before July? $0.00Jul 8, 20:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? $0.00Jul 8, 20:59 UTC
- REDEEMAnother US military action against Iran by Friday?$0.00Jul 8, 20:59 UTC
- REDEEMTrump overturns Biden pardon before July?$0.00Jul 8, 20:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $4.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 12:12 UTC
- Last active
- May 25, 03:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.