Lasting-Thyme
0xe5ad6ef51b7ec22025481740e741950ab6b939c6
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$238.17
Total PnL
$-26.02
Realised
$-1.60
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 91.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$84.50
$-6.50
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?
80 shares @ 81.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$65.19
$0.39
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$48.50
$8.50
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
240 shares @ 10.8¢·now 12.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.52
$3.55
- NO
Will the announcers say "Captain" 5+ times during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?
21 shares @ 76.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$9.55
$-6.41
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
50 shares @ 14.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.63
$-6.38
- NO
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.28
$-0.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 5?
34 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-16.93
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?$11.04Jul 7, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$81.72Jul 7, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Graham Platner drop out by July 10?$35.55Jul 7, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Compact" during the Argentina vs Egypt FIFA World Cup Match?$25.80Jul 7, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?$5.43Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Fan" 5+ times during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?$1.08Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$82.51Jul 7, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$3.94Jul 7, 09:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?$33.12Jul 7, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$4.42Jul 7, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?$20.10Jul 7, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?$22.40Jul 7, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?$5.50Jul 7, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Messi" during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?$7.28Jul 7, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Messi" during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?$7.50Jul 7, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?$11.50Jul 7, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?$2.30Jul 7, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$2.90Jul 7, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$3.00Jul 7, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?$8.03Jul 7, 08:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $16.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 05:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 09:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.