Capital-Mouth
0xe5dcd52630848fd7803cd13c09208e8876f835f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
190
Open notional
$3.7K
Total PnL
$-21.2K
Realised
$-2.5K
Win rate
34%
100 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 190- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
1110 shares @ 69.4¢·now 72.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$804.76
$34.83
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
666 shares @ 87.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$626.01
$46.62
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
500 shares @ 91.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$497.50
$39.63
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
666 shares @ 76.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$496.17
$-9.99
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
444 shares @ 85.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$370.74
$-6.66
- NO
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in July?
280 shares @ 86.9¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$276.06
$32.41
- NO
Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?
222 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$195.36
$0.00
- NO
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
238 shares @ 80.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$189.00
$-1.19
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
241 shares @ 63.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$162.85
$10.86
- NO
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?
105 shares @ 74.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$92.38
$14.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$41.33Jul 28, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$100.38Jul 28, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$70.00Jul 28, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$266.38Jul 28, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$1.48Jul 28, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$506.16Jul 28, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$28.00Jul 28, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$28.00Jul 28, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$8.33Jul 28, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$377.40Jul 28, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?$196.30Jul 28, 06:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$102.24Jul 28, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$291.80Jul 28, 04:48 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.47Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$8.51Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$100.23Jul 27, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$101.03Jul 27, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$188.00Jul 27, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?$140.99Jul 27, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$89.56Jul 27, 14:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
34% win rate over 100 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
100 closed markets, 34% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $91.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 05:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 12:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 100 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.