Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
Probability
57¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$3.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5998.3h
- 01:41SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5998h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 01:41PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 57¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 57¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 57¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 56¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 56¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 56¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 56¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 56¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 59¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 54¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 54¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 55¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 55¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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