Pessimistic-Blow
0xe64fefc3552125df3480e3c20fb55aaafb607d13
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$176.44
Total PnL
$-10.3K
Realised
$-182.85
Win rate
47%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?
500 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
211 shares @ 19.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.55
$-9.45
- YES
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
235 shares @ 17.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$29.41
$-10.59
- YES
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
107 shares @ 28.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.39
$-1.61
- YES
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?
346 shares @ 8.7¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.98
$-4.02
- YES
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
1540 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$16.17
$-0.77
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
625 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.94
$-4.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
736 shares @ 27.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6PM ET
659 shares @ 28.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-188.32
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
635 shares @ 37.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-241.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$205.83Jul 28, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$7.25Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$31.07Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$20.90Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$31.29Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$193.22Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$16.98Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$360.41Jul 28, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$103.43Jul 28, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$102.68Jul 28, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$11.49Jul 28, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$10.62Jul 28, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$10.09Jul 28, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?$17.78Jul 28, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$65.99Jul 28, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$47.23Jul 28, 12:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$103.92Jul 28, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$48.56Jul 28, 12:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$29.99Jul 27, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$2.00Jul 27, 13:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $37.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 23:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.