0xe6c85f9d531bc274dc4aaf9f8baf8ad175acb8c0
0xe6c85f9d531bc274dc4aaf9f8baf8ad175acb8c0
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$27.75
Total PnL
$-119.71
Realised
$44.00
Win rate
50%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
10 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
10 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.68
$-0.12
- NO
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
10 shares @ 90.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.35
$-1.65
- NO
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?
10 shares @ 88.6¢·now 27.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.71
$-6.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or higher on May 26?
3457 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-26.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on May 26?
1243 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-24.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 30?
1027 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-23.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 30?
1020 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4?
446 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-4.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 30?
429 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.72
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?$10.00Jul 1, 08:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June?$50.00Jul 1, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?$5.00Jul 1, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6?$1.04Jun 5, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6?$4.73Jun 5, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6?$4.75Jun 5, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 6?$0.42Jun 5, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 6?$0.06Jun 5, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 6?$0.05Jun 5, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 6?$0.37Jun 5, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 6?$0.06Jun 5, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5?$0.50Jun 5, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5?$0.53Jun 5, 09:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5?$0.49Jun 5, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5?$0.47Jun 5, 09:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5?$1.14Jun 5, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5?$1.00Jun 5, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 6?$0.11Jun 5, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 6?$0.18Jun 5, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 6?$0.52Jun 5, 08:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $0.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 22:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 08:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.