Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
+1.6pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$18.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 12¢; +0.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4592h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4591.9h
- 16:05SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4592h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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