0xe7e98d511e3b780fe692324288f50bf29fd5b434
0xe7e98d511e3b780fe692324288f50bf29fd5b434
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$970.60
Total PnL
$-17.62
Realised
$8.21
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
189 shares @ 37.1¢·now 36.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$68.62
$-1.39
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
199 shares @ 7.5¢·now 33.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$66.31
$51.31
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
56 shares @ 67.8¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$39.11
$0.96
- YES
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?
83 shares @ 42.5¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$39.06
$3.70
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
76 shares @ 36.6¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.18
$8.28
- YES
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
49 shares @ 74.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$35.76
$-0.24
- YES
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?
36 shares @ 67.7¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$34.94
$10.72
- PISA SC
Spread: Pisa SC (-2.5)
57 shares @ 87.2¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$34.06
$-15.87
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
57 shares @ 53.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.40
$3.40
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
67 shares @ 43.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$27.93
$-1.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?$0.19Aug 17, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$18.19Aug 17, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$30.77Aug 17, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?$3.39Aug 17, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$18.19Aug 17, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$3.19Aug 17, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$15.28Aug 17, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?$1.27Aug 17, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$9.16Aug 17, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$2.89Aug 17, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$1.00Aug 17, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?$0.23Aug 17, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?$2.55Aug 17, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$1.75Aug 17, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?$4.68Aug 17, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$2.07Aug 17, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$8.00Aug 17, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$2.45Aug 17, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner$0.00Aug 17, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMKingston: Matt Kuhar vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos$0.00Aug 17, 00:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $6.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 22:13 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 21:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.