Murky-Margarine
0xe807669773bfbf08918c61d0191fd7db12ee4d35
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$4.7K
Total PnL
$-487.31
Realised
$-340.95
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
1180 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$1.2K
$5.31
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
1269 shares @ 90.5¢·now 83.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.1K
$-92.94
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026?
824 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp May 15, 2026$822.70
$6.72
- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
477 shares @ 98.4¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$471.89
$2.17
- YES
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15?
298 shares @ 90.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$198.16
$-70.17
- YES
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?
206 shares @ 96.6¢·now 92.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$190.03
$-8.96
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?
191 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$178.58
$0.95
- NO
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?
100 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$99.40
$0.60
- NO
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?
90 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$89.37
$2.97
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?
86 shares @ 98.9¢·now 98.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.05
$-0.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?$586.18Jun 14, 00:31 UTC
- REWARD$2.94Jun 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$310.38Jun 13, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 13?$96.85Jun 13, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? $296.40Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 13?$0.53Jun 13, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 13?$0.80Jun 13, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 13?$0.61Jun 13, 16:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?$200.00Jun 13, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$4.0KJun 13, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$10.2KJun 13, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?$199.80Jun 13, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?$886.21Jun 13, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$13.60Jun 13, 13:20 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$169.79Jun 13, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$1.84Jun 13, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by August 31?$17.54Jun 13, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by July 31?$40.88Jun 13, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by July 15?$24.90Jun 13, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$91.30Jun 13, 11:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$24.1K
Trades
2
Buy share
52%
Window
May 29, 16:30 UTC → Jun 3, 23:40 UTC
- BUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$12.5K@100¢Jun 3, 23:40 UTC
- SELLWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?$11.6K@100¢May 29, 16:26 UTC
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$24.1K
2 trades
Buy share
52%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$12.5K · 52% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $888.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 00:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.