Roasted-Country
0xe84ea31deece63a28c5b9b7382d4d2c0828889f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-240.33
Realised
$7.16
Win rate
75%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
600 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.60
- YES
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC?
400 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?
375 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.75
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20?
300 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- WOLVES
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs AG Super Play (BO7) - Honor of Kings Challenger Cup Stage 2
250 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.75
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29?
200 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?
200 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
128 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$2.46Jul 10, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?$5.19Jul 10, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$2.05Jul 9, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Morocco end in a draw?$10.22Jul 9, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?$1.02Jul 6, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?$5.11Jul 6, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico vs. England end in a draw?$6.12Jul 5, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?$8.18Jul 5, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?$5.06Jul 2, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?$7.16Jul 2, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?$5.12Jul 2, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYHonor of Kings: JD Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 1$3.06Jul 2, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?$1.99Jul 1, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?$1.99Jul 1, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score AND Exact Score: Any Other Score?$3.00Jun 30, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYSweden to score first vs. France?$2.05Jun 30, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Norway?$1.03Jun 30, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetherlands vs. Morocco: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$4.08Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?$26.32Jun 29, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?$5.12Jun 29, 19:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 11:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.