Grotesque-Lieu
0xe866a1716173497588ecaa1f7dc40aab543ecc4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.90
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-7.42
Win rate
28%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
38 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.60
$-3.40
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.31
$-3.69
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
162 shares @ 46.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-75.60
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
158 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-73.90
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
151 shares @ 46.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-70.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
108 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-59.21
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 8?
90 shares @ 54.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-48.70
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7?
87 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-20.85
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?
85 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-22.91
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
81 shares @ 37.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-30.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$5.76Jul 20, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$3.04Jul 20, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$3.04Jul 20, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$5.45Jul 20, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$5.30Jul 20, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.88Jul 20, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$3.92Jul 20, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.83Jul 20, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$3.38Jul 20, 05:40 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$5.13Jul 20, 05:30 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$5.00Jul 20, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$2.14Jul 20, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$3.03Jul 20, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$5.67Jul 20, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$2.20Jul 20, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$2.44Jul 20, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$3.05Jul 20, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$3.05Jul 20, 03:10 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.45Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$3.14Jul 20, 01:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
62/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
32 closed markets, 28% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 18:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 10:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.