Pessimistic-Work
0xe8a23fbb927521c30fce4b34fdc36fb9474c560e
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
40
Open notional
$63.97
Total PnL
$-584.23
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
41 shares @ 66.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.76
$12.76
- NO
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
23 shares @ 72.6¢·now 71.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.76
$-0.24
- YES
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
32 shares @ 80.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.68
$-21.92
- YES
António Guterres out by December 31?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.39
$0.33
- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
108 shares @ 22.3¢·now 1.2¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$1.29
$-22.71
- YES
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
120 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.08
$-10.92
- YES
Will Vladimir Prebilič be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
2333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Matjaž Han be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
1175 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
- YES
Will the Social Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?$120.00Jun 6, 13:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?$37.27Jun 6, 13:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election$40.54Jun 6, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$99.99May 26, 14:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$100.00May 26, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election$15.38May 24, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?$16.51May 24, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?$17.54May 24, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?$18.58May 24, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?$19.57May 24, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?$20.54May 21, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?$21.37May 21, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?$22.50May 21, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?$1.50May 21, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$24.75May 20, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?$25.50May 20, 12:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$41.69May 20, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$25.40May 19, 18:30 UTC
- REWARD$1.55May 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$9.47May 18, 15:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $10.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 20:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 6, 13:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.