António Guterres out by December 31?
Probability
18¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$643.50
Liquidity
$10.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5991.1h
- 08:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5991h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 16¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 16¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.0pp
to 16¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 16¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 17¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 19¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 18¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 16¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 16¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.0pp
to 16¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.0pp
to 16¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.5pp
to 16¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 16¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 16¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 16¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 16¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).