Precious-Physical
0xe8a68017820cc850b4d13cfd8a165eb438b4644b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
176
Open notional
$65.8K
Total PnL
$634.84
Realised
$1.5K
Win rate
85%
85 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 176- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
59500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$47.6K
$17.8K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
59500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.9K
$-17.8K
- NO
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
526 shares @ 88.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$501.90
$38.16
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?
435 shares @ 9.5¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$400.40
$358.89
- NO
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?
455 shares @ 70.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$320.79
$-1.96
- YES
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
317 shares @ 46.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$265.89
$120.17
- YES
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
300 shares @ 87.3¢·now 85.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$254.99
$-6.80
- NO
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
263 shares @ 91.7¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$246.24
$4.81
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 28, 2026?
222 shares @ 88.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$212.71
$17.71
- YES
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
269 shares @ 68.3¢·now 77.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$209.29
$25.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?$0.25Jul 29, 00:17 UTC
- REWARD$0.15Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$5.30Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$1.80Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?$3.06Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 28, 2026?$0.80Jul 28, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?$80.00Jul 28, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?$16.60Jul 28, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?$9.59Jul 28, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?$65.60Jul 28, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?$90.00Jul 28, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?$9.28Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 28, 2026?$4.00Jul 28, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 28, 2026?$8.00Jul 28, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$1.02Jul 28, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPU rental prices (B200) Up or Down in July?$1.20Jul 28, 04:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$118.44Jul 28, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.64Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- YIELD$5.30Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$5.59Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 85 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
85 closed markets, 85% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $13.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 85 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.