Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Probability
45¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$20.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 45¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 8865h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 8864.6h
- 15:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 8865h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 46¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 45¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 46¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 45¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 45¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).