Lively-Headlight
0xe8af2776a9886c89bdcfc1041c9de852166cb69b
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$2.09
Total PnL
$-2.82
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
2 shares @ 88.1¢·now 91.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.09
$0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 12?
120 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on April 12?
106 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 10?
15 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on April 11?
15 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 12?
5 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.11
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill US withdraw from NATO by April 30?$1.03May 1, 06:47 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$0.00Apr 25, 00:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 12?$0.00Apr 12, 18:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 11?$0.00Apr 12, 10:42 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$0.46Apr 11, 18:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 11?$0.00Apr 11, 15:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on April 10?$0.00Apr 11, 10:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 10?$0.00Apr 11, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 10?$0.00Apr 11, 07:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$0.07Apr 11, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$0.21Apr 11, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 11?$1.00Apr 11, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 11?$0.00Apr 11, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 12?$0.22Apr 11, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 12?$1.00Apr 11, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 11?$1.00Apr 11, 00:29 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$3.02Apr 11, 00:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$0.02Apr 11, 00:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$0.02Apr 11, 00:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?$0.01Apr 10, 23:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $0.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 07:11 UTC
- Last active
- May 1, 06:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".