Poor-Update-Opera
0xe8c428250693d7f1e588ba6f4666d02e68f0ea5c
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
147
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$-215.85
Realised
$36.00
Win rate
79%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 147- NO
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
80 shares @ 86.5¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.60
$-1.60
- NO
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
90 shares @ 72.5¢·now 60.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$54.00
$-11.30
- NO
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
100 shares @ 85.5¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.50
$-35.00
- NO
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.75
$-0.25
- NO
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp?
50 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$44.75
$0.75
- YES
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by December 31?
70 shares @ 78.8¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$44.60
$-10.76
- YES
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
50 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.25
$0.25
- NO
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?
55 shares @ 83.9¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.14
$-1.85
- NO
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$43.76
$-1.25
- NO
Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$42.50
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$40.00Aug 18, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?$7.65Aug 18, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?$10.20Aug 18, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$30.65Aug 18, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$28.50Aug 18, 16:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$21.68Aug 18, 14:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $100 by December 31, 2026?$3.54Aug 18, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?$5.00Aug 18, 13:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?$12.00Aug 18, 13:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$8.07Aug 18, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?$0.65Aug 18, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?$3.20Aug 18, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$2.08Aug 18, 12:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?$1.00Aug 18, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?$1.00Aug 18, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEvangeline Lilly as the Wasp?$44.00Aug 18, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $100 by December 31, 2026?$3.96Aug 18, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?$5.65Aug 18, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$5.68Aug 18, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?$6.87Aug 18, 11:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
78/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 73 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
73 closed markets, 79% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 02:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 17:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.