Uncomfortable-Thrift-Steamroller
0xe8da20d0cdd416021f2551bb2e4dd88153f3a398
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-537.39
Realised
$-18.36
Win rate
2%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on May 16?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
1244 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- NO
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on May 16?
812 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
771 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-121.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 16?
554 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
422 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
371 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
157 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.00May 18, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$2.10May 18, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$10.47May 18, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.07May 18, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$10.55May 18, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$10.48May 18, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$28.89May 18, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$10.42May 18, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.03May 18, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.03May 18, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.03May 18, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$1.07May 18, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$2.14May 18, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$1.07May 18, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$1.06May 18, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$1.07May 18, 01:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$25.64May 17, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.04May 17, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.04May 17, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.04May 17, 09:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
48 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $6.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 06:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 20:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.