Smug-Advantage
0xe90f25a30a4b8a6165df6e86f0ac2360498ad3b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$13.28
Total PnL
$-2.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.29
$0.02
- NO
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.83
$0.01
- NO
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.51
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?
2 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$1.50
$0.02
- NO
US bank failure by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.35
$0.01
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.34
$0.00
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$1.26
$0.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.13
$0.01
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.06
$0.00
- YES
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.36
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,200 July 6-12?$1.15Jul 13, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 11?$1.24Jul 11, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 11?$1.24Jul 11, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 July 6-12?$1.15Jul 11, 03:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$1.16Jul 8, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$1.14Jul 5, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the People’s Bank of China increase rates in June?$1.15Jul 1, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Miami be less than $1,072,000 on June 30?$1.34Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China increase rates in June?$1.15Jun 29, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be less than $1,072,000 on June 30?$1.34Jun 29, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$1.07Jun 16, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20?$1.24Jun 15, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20?$1.24Jun 15, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$1.07Jun 15, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31?$2.27Jun 1, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 8?$1.34May 9, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS bank failure by April 30?$1.34Apr 30, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?$1.82Apr 29, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?$1.48Apr 29, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.26Apr 15, 07:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 20, 02:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 04:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.