Beloved-Politics
0xe986187a62c0d1979df5bb0320680ddf561e4c3b
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-231.82
Realised
$34.90
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
925 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
833 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
465 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
161 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-15.90
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
116 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-45.22
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
85 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.38
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
78 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.37
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
69 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-23.83
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
50 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.42
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 3, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 1, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 27, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 26, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.