Cumbersome-Proofreader
0xea2f794a7f0ce05e4bbd357b3ccbb3bd2048a8ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$14.1K
Total PnL
$1.2K
Realised
$1.7K
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
205437 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.6K
$1.3K
- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
58233 shares @ 1.1¢·now 3.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.9K
$1.2K
- YES
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
100649 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$452.92
$-268.03
- YES
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
53816 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$188.36
$-100.69
- YES
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.05
$1.15
- YES
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
34158 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-661.13
- NO
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
23479 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-823.88
- NO
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?
8353 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-371.19
- YES
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
6882 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-36.49
- NO
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?
2347 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2026$0.00
$-57.70
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.21Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$7.97Jul 28, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.80Jul 28, 22:48 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$16.98Jul 28, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$6.00Jul 28, 22:19 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$30.00Jul 28, 22:09 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$29.94Jul 28, 22:09 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$4.39Jul 28, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.00Jul 28, 01:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.17Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$6.00Jul 27, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$0.07Jul 27, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.24Jul 27, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$12.00Jul 27, 17:32 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$5.21Jul 27, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "USMCA" or "NAFTA" during Michigan remarks?$279.11Jul 27, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$119.75Jul 27, 17:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?$20.00Jul 27, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "USMCA" or "NAFTA" during Michigan remarks?$298.24Jul 27, 17:07 UTC
- YIELD$1.11Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
11/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $57.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.