Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?

1. 1

   Up 3pp over 24h

   Now 33¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 896h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $20.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.