Double-Rutabaga
0xea96a28f673d59c036eea675dbb690ef9e2e2fb8
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$9.3K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$145.66
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4333 shares @ 93.7¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.2K
$120.91
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
4178 shares @ 94.2¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.0K
$28.82
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1038 shares @ 98.4¢·now 98.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.0K
$3.06
- NO
Japanese parliament dissolved in 2026?
95 shares @ 89.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$86.10
$0.62
- YES
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?
50 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$41.50
$0.00
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
300 shares @ 10.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.50
$-7.50
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
1234 shares @ 77.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-958.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
968 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-125.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
539 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
200 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-61.99
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.72Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$211.00Jul 4, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$211.00Jul 4, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$101.00Jul 4, 07:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.73Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$37.35Jul 3, 18:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.71Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$492.82Jul 2, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$1.24Jul 2, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$1.31Jul 2, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$1.11Jul 2, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$1.11Jul 2, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?$4.15Jul 2, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$3.3KJul 2, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.42Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$86.01Jul 1, 14:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?$150.52Jul 1, 07:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$4.1KJul 1, 06:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.42Jul 1, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?$517.74Jun 30, 23:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $219.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.