Ragged-Tattoo
0xeaa47d114cffe990a671bdad1199e6bebb0a5c82
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$21.20
Total PnL
$-484.34
Realised
$42.23
Win rate
78%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
80 shares @ 41.8¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$21.20
$-12.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 23?
974 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16?
669 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15?
399 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 12?
250 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- NO
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 23?
226 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
204 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 1?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or higher on May 13?
169 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on July 25?$1.00Jul 25, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 25?$4.82Jul 25, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 25?$6.50Jul 25, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$7.79Jul 24, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 24?$2.09Jul 24, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 23?$6.60Jul 23, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 23?$4.14Jul 23, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 23?$9.79Jul 23, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 23?$4.56Jul 23, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 23?$1.05Jul 23, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 23?$1.77Jul 23, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 22?$1.05Jul 22, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 22?$1.05Jul 22, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 22?$0.03Jul 22, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 22?$1.52Jul 22, 08:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 22?$20.46Jul 22, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 22?$4.38Jul 22, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 22?$7.00Jul 22, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 22?$2.95Jul 22, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 22?$1.85Jul 22, 05:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
68/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
36 closed markets, 78% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 05:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 05:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.