Reflecting-Zither
0xeb4d614b4ffc55e2baafaa98998c491e607c9f81
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$1.43
Total PnL
$-51.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 4.4¢·now 3.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.87
$-0.13
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.30
$-0.70
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 27?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 15?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on December 27?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.