Grand-Spleen
0xeb526f42dc37f1a86e7fe97019b1bfe1ac8c67cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.3K
Realised
$-567.08
Win rate
49%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 4?
5533 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-163.10
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 4?
1650 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-105.89
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 3?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 3, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on December 3?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 3, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
1100 shares @ 91.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.0K
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 3?
994 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 3, 2025$0.00
$-169.05
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,500 on December 4?
850 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.05
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 4?
650 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-0.65
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 9?
567 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-225.14
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
500 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?$2.0KJul 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$2.0KJun 23, 15:25 UTC
- REWARD$1.38Jun 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?$356.35Jun 15, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?$624.65Jun 15, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$723.80Jun 15, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$28.20Jun 15, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$64.50Jun 15, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$21.50Jun 14, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$172.00Jun 14, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?$24.68Jun 8, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$2.0KJun 8, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?$22.26Jun 8, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?$680.31Jun 8, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?$257.74Jun 8, 00:30 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$2.0KJun 8, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$295.50May 27, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$111.03May 27, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$3.93May 27, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$2.02May 27, 09:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
39 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $220.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 11:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.