Authentic-Divide
0xeb74819df2d71a8fcf78c98cebd0b5fd976b0610
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-3.89
Realised
$15.08
Win rate
100%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
900 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$893.26
$3.53
- NO
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
313 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$311.89
$0.73
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?
102 shares @ 97.1¢·now 98.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.80
$1.09
- NO
Will Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
100 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$99.40
$0.10
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
80 shares @ 97.2¢·now 97.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$78.28
$0.49
- YES
Will United Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?
43 shares @ 95.9¢·now 95.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$41.52
$-0.05
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.86
$0.23
- NO
Megaquake by August 31?
20 shares @ 94.5¢·now 94.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$18.93
$0.04
- NO
Trump meets with Putin by September 30?
16 shares @ 92.7¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.27
$0.43
- NO
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
14 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.36
$0.07
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia coup attempt in 2026?$47.00Aug 16, 11:25 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$29.99Aug 16, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026?$10.00Aug 16, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$9.61Aug 16, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$5.93Aug 15, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$3.97Aug 15, 09:40 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?$30.00Aug 15, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia coup attempt in 2026?$13.29Aug 15, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYMegaquake by August 31?$9.39Aug 14, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYMegaquake by August 31?$9.50Aug 14, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?$29.88Aug 14, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$9.87Aug 14, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$9.89Aug 14, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump meets with Putin by September 30?$19.18Aug 14, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$99.30Aug 14, 15:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$8.53Aug 14, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.11Aug 13, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$41.57Aug 13, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.90Aug 12, 09:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $11.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 17:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.