Bland-Monger
0xec47215b619a6704bd6179c7c4fdaca21ef70c22
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-10.07
Win rate
23%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 13?
748 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-11.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 12?
723 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-114.55
- FRANCE
Spread: France (-4.5)
527 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on July 13?
527 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 14?
524 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on July 14?
510 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 11?
481 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-14.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 12?
412 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-14.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on July 17?
403 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 10?
372 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-8.72
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?$9.86Jul 28, 07:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$31.49Jul 20, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?$2.38Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude go down 9-11 times in July?$1.25Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?$4.98Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.11Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$4.63Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$1.64Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?$4.99Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?$4.99Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$4.96Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$1.90Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $345,000 on September 30?$0.77Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?$0.29Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?$4.96Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30?$1.61Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?$3.71Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?$1.69Jul 20, 13:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 13:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 07:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.