Verifiable-Capital
0xec4d43d71e4a356f611606b320536dac33b03b11
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
71
Open notional
$357.66
Total PnL
$-660.20
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
179 shares @ 50.3¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$108.20
$18.20
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
319 shares @ 25.1¢·now 19.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$63.07
$-16.93
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
96 shares @ 52.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$41.30
$-8.70
- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
833 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.25
$-8.75
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
160 shares @ 21.8¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$31.81
$-3.19
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
29 shares @ 34.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.91
$1.91
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
20 shares @ 49.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.33
$1.33
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
43 shares @ 23.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.30
$-3.70
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
53 shares @ 19.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.53
$-4.47
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
136 shares @ 29.4¢·now 4.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.44
$-34.56
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$128.62Jul 20, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.23Jul 19, 08:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 8, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $7.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.