Impractical-Complexity
0xec73e285bc86f46b5d4bea1ab10aa012e7de6af3
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
179
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.4K
Realised
$-42.06
Win rate
0%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 179- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
1090 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-22.89
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Espanyol vs. Sevilla end in a draw?
517 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 24, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will Burundi win on 2025-10-09?
514 shares @ 41.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 9, 2025$0.00
$-211.73
- YES
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2025-11-23?
435 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
432 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-38.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05?
417 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Libya win on 2025-10-08?
405 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 8, 2025$0.00
$-121.60
- YES
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during Mamdani events on November 21?
388 shares @ 38.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-147.99
- YES
Will Mircea Cărtărescu win the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature?
357 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-178.42
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$1.94Jun 15, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$2.00Jun 12, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?$2.07Jun 12, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?$2.06Jun 12, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYKorea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners$2.03Jun 11, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYKorea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5$2.35Jun 11, 21:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$14.27Jun 11, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5$1.02Jun 11, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYAlexis Vega: 1+ goals$1.02Jun 11, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$3.03Jun 11, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$7.06Jun 11, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$12.12Jun 11, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$12.01Jun 11, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?$1.05Jun 11, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Bolivia 0 - 2 Algeria?$5.13Jun 10, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica?$43.30Jun 10, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica?$7.18Jun 10, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10?$5.08Jun 10, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10?$4.07Jun 10, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10?$10.16Jun 10, 13:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 03:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 23:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.