Spanish-Eardrum
0xeca0412c3425879003d42ec1f642b30b7745789a
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$9.83
Total PnL
$-3.78
Realised
$-0.07
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$1.13
$-0.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 4?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on July 5?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.07
$-0.00
- NO
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$1.06
$0.00
- YES
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on July 6?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 97.4¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.05
$-0.02
- MIAMI MARLINS
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$1.03
$0.00
- NO
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.76
$-0.24
- YES
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?
2 shares @ 67.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.57
$-0.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on July 6?$1.07Jul 4, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$3.46Jul 4, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$1.03Jul 4, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$4.60Jul 4, 04:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?$5.53Jul 4, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?$6.60Jul 4, 04:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$6.62Jul 4, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$7.70Jul 4, 04:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 4?$4.90Jul 4, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. Athletics$1.03Jul 4, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 4?$6.00Jul 4, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on July 5?$9.69Jul 4, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.01Jul 4, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on July 5?$10.80Jul 4, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUY2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?$1.00Jul 4, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1.02Jun 23, 03:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$1.02Jun 23, 03:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?$1.05Jun 23, 03:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings?$1.09Jun 23, 03:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$1.20Jun 23, 03:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $4.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 03:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 04:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.