Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Probability
61¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 61¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 854h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 35.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 853.9h
- 16:04SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 854h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:04PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 61¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 61¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 62¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 61¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 61¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 61¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 64¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 56¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (35.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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