Homely-Grassland
0xed06747bab9314563eed7b63784bf1c4b2a72a2c
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$461.02
Total PnL
$-60.44
Realised
$6.53
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$48.23
$2.73
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
50 shares @ 68.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.74
$11.75
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
50 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
40 shares @ 88.3¢·now 90.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$36.04
$0.72
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
50 shares @ 77.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$33.25
$-5.25
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
50 shares @ 52.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$30.75
$4.75
- YES
Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 7 or after?
40 shares @ 56.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$27.80
$5.40
- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
40 shares @ 59.9¢·now 59.8¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$23.90
$-0.06
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
40 shares @ 58.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$22.60
$-0.60
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
100 shares @ 23.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$22.50
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?$18.59Jul 3, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$23.71Jul 3, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?$17.49Jul 3, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?$17.39Jul 3, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "China" or “Chinese” be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 6?$3.00Jul 3, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 7 or after?$22.70Jul 3, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Penalty" 5+ times during the Argentina vs Cape Verde FIFA World Cup Match?$2.50Jul 3, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Argentina vs Cape Verde FIFA World Cup Match?$4.23Jul 3, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$24.34Jul 3, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03?$4.32Jul 3, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance$9.41Jul 3, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?$37.32Jul 3, 03:41 UTC
- REDEEMPortugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance$20.00Jul 3, 01:27 UTC
- REDEEMPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score$20.00Jul 3, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?$31.41Jul 3, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance$14.42Jul 3, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score$18.64Jul 3, 00:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?$10.00Jul 1, 13:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$5.00Jul 1, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics AND Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies$6.54Jul 1, 04:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $19.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 03:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 20:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.