OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?
Probability
77¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$28.10
Liquidity
$4.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $4.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14737.6h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 77¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.5pp at 1d ago (to 77¢).
Show top 8 of 22 hourly moves
- 03:00 · -4.5pp → 77¢
- 02:00 · -4.5pp → 77¢
- 00:00 · -4.5pp → 77¢
- 23:00 · -4.5pp → 77¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 77¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 77¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 77¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 77¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
9- 9¢-2.5pp
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $261.3K
- 91¢+3.0pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $145.7K
- 0¢0.0pp
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $133.0K
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $109.9K
- 0¢0.0pp
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $108.7K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the official closing price of the abbreviated sessionTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.