Untrue-Quit
0xed169c4ae324bfceebd41379a8f3ff01674851e3
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$228.69
Total PnL
$-661.06
Realised
$-3.44
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
173 shares @ 51.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$92.31
$4.31
- YES
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?
456 shares @ 9.7¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$38.73
$-5.27
- YES
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?
508 shares @ 8.6¢·now 7.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$35.57
$-8.43
- YES
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?
224 shares @ 12.5¢·now 9.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$20.17
$-7.83
- YES
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?
174 shares @ 10.3¢·now 10.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$18.30
$0.30
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
160 shares @ 26.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$12.00
$-29.60
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
160 shares @ 10.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$4.72
$-11.28
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
291 shares @ 31.6¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.64
$-88.56
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
260 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.30
$-27.10
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
185 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.02
$-3.61
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?$88.00Jul 23, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?$28.00Jul 23, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?$18.00Jul 23, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?$44.00Jul 23, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?$44.00Jul 23, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$4.00Jul 8, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$4.06Jul 8, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.40Jul 7, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$0.93Jul 7, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$2.56Jul 1, 17:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$5.71Jul 1, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$0.04Jul 1, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$0.26Jul 1, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$6.60Jul 1, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$29.44Jul 1, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$5.60Jul 1, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?$0.15Jul 1, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?$3.85Jul 1, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?$0.63Jul 1, 01:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $15.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 10:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 01:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.