0xed35426be2a88e8d75a31aa4cfbf30ead42f7937
0xed35426be2a88e8d75a31aa4cfbf30ead42f7937
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$134.92
Total PnL
$-10.8K
Realised
$-668.46
Win rate
22%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Cinzia Francischiello win Big Brother Argentina 2026?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.80
$-1.20
- YES
Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2026?
120 shares @ 50.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2026$22.80
$-37.20
- YES
Will Ukraine win Junior Eurovision 2026?
61 shares @ 50.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2026$13.42
$-17.08
- YES
Will Cyprus win Junior Eurovision 2026?
74 shares @ 50.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2026$12.60
$-24.45
- YES
Will France win Junior Eurovision 2026?
66 shares @ 50.0¢·now 19.2¢·exp Oct 25, 2026$12.59
$-20.20
- YES
Will Poland win Junior Eurovision 2026?
67 shares @ 50.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Oct 25, 2026$11.09
$-22.52
- YES
Will Georgia win Junior Eurovision 2026?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2026$5.40
$-24.60
- YES
Will Spain win Junior Eurovision 2026?
120 shares @ 50.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Oct 25, 2026$4.20
$-55.80
- YES
Will Netherlands win Junior Eurovision 2026?
63 shares @ 50.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Oct 25, 2026$3.45
$-27.92
- YES
Will Portugal win Junior Eurovision 2026?
120 shares @ 50.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Oct 25, 2026$2.88
$-57.12
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$8.12Jul 18, 06:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Real Me" - Future first week album sales be between 125k and 150k?$9.96Jul 17, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Weeknd be the third most streamed artist for 2026?$3.42Jul 17, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$0.24Jul 17, 18:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$15.95Jul 17, 17:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$63.72Jul 17, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$5.68Jul 16, 21:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$11.88Jul 16, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$1.15Jul 16, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?$32.78Jul 16, 09:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$0.01Jul 16, 00:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$0.01Jul 16, 00:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$1.10Jul 15, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$6.30Jul 15, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Pelphrey – “Task” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?$1.01Jul 15, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shawn Hatosy – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?$6.07Jul 15, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$2.60Jul 15, 15:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$5.87Jul 15, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Pelphrey – “Task” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?$9.84Jul 15, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Billy Crudup – “The Morning Show” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?$0.45Jul 15, 09:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
67/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
69 closed markets, 22% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 18:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 06:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.