EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires Oct 25, 2026
Creator

Will Portugal win Junior Eurovision 2026?

Probability

18¢

1h

-0.3pp

24h

+0.3pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$3.6K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

15% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    15% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
6
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$500
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$4k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage118/148 runtime-backed0 unmapped

not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Oct 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
junioreurovision.tv
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (33.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.2pp 7d
1007550250
18¢
Jun 13, 2026, 07:00 UTCJun 20, 2026, 06:33 UTC
updated 06:33:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-20T06-33Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 33.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Portugal win Junior Eurovision 2026? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Portugal win Junior Eurovision 2026? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Oct 25, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3045.4h

    LOW
  • 06:33Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.

Biggest hourly move: -21.1pp at 09:00 (to 17¢).

Show top 8 of 72 hourly moves
  • 14:00 · -16.0pp → 18¢
  • 10:00 · -21.1pp → 18¢
  • 09:00 · -21.1pp → 17¢
  • Jun 19, 04:00 UTC · -21.0pp → 18¢
  • Jun 18, 08:00 UTC · -16.1pp → 18¢
  • Jun 17, 20:00 UTC · +13.9pp → 24¢
  • Jun 16, 20:00 UTC · +14.0pp → 39¢
  • Jun 16, 16:00 UTC · +21.0pp → 39¢
updated 06:33:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:33:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventJunior Eurovision Winner 2026

Market Description

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Junior Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Junior Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Junior Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Junior Eurovision (https://junioreurovision.tv/), including live footage of Junior Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Entertainment

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

eurovision

Reason

Eurovision markets are Entertainment even when the contestant country is also a geopolitics keyword.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Portugal win Junior Eurovision 2026?"?

As of Sat, 20 Jun 2026 06:33:49 GMT, YES is priced at 18% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.3pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and -5.2pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Oct 25, 2026 (2026-10-25T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $47.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 33.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

6 wallets
Open on Polymarket