Firm-Connection
0xed38a9fc2510e223a37f5a085ba62e08da82e783
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$400.00
Total PnL
$-14.12
Realised
$-0.13
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
230 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$230.00
$0.23
- NO
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
170 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$170.00
$1.36
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in November 2025?
710 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.42
- YES
Will Green Left win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
660 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.64
- YES
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
550 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on November 8?
501 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2025$0.00
$-7.52
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
300 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?
200 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$1.50Mar 30, 16:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?$149.10Mar 27, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?$149.10Mar 26, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$229.77Mar 26, 10:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$289.42Mar 26, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$289.71Mar 26, 10:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?$409.18Mar 26, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?$409.59Mar 26, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$259.48Mar 26, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$259.74Mar 26, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Green Left win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$2.64Mar 23, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$390.00Mar 19, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$388.83Mar 13, 20:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 20?$420.00Dec 29, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 20?$419.58Dec 19, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in November 2025?$1.42Nov 28, 08:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?$470.00Nov 19, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?$469.53Nov 16, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on November 8?$7.52Nov 7, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.10Oct 30, 17:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $161.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 02:56 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 30, 16:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".