Frayed-Nougat
0xede3eb7a4f05b8d8ad1dbb4d2dd6a2a3f30ae3f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$244.29
Total PnL
$-891.61
Realised
$40.56
Win rate
70%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
200 shares @ 38.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.00
$13.00
- NO
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
150 shares @ 38.3¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.99
$8.50
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 26.9¢·now 21.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$21.15
$-5.75
- YES
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by September 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.50
$-17.50
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100 shares @ 14.3¢·now 12.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$12.45
$-1.85
- YES
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?
34 shares @ 44.8¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$10.84
$-4.33
- YES
SBF released from custody in 2026?
185 shares @ 7.6¢·now 4.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.70
$-5.37
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
40 shares @ 55.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.40
$-14.60
- YES
Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2027?
20 shares @ 48.6¢·now 27.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$5.31
$-4.24
- YES
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?
7 shares @ 87.0¢·now 66.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.66
$-1.41
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$16.12Jul 27, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.77Jul 27, 20:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$53.18Jul 25, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$1.00Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$1.00Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$1.00Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$0.77Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$37.22Jul 25, 04:59 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$150.00Jul 24, 21:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Svitle by September 30?$101.30Jul 23, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?$105.26Jul 23, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?$105.26Jul 23, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?$106.15Jul 23, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?$104.38Jul 23, 23:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $41.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 15:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.